Hurling Sport

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

One of the most difficult decisions to make is when to cut bait on a player, especially those drafted as roster anchors. Even though Kevin Gausman was drafted with the knowledge he was nursing a sore shoulder in the spring, the outlook was optimistic, so he was still expected to be one of the better starting pitchers.

Through five starts, Gausman is sporting a 5.57 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP. Optimists will note Gausman's xFIP and SIERA are both a run and a half lower. Even so, Gausman wasn't drafted for a 4.00 ERA.

Under the hood, Gausman's 18.6% strikeout rate is well below his career 24.7% average, and even lower than the 29.8% mark he has logged since 2020. His .348 BABIP is high, but Gausman usually carries a high level, including a historically high in 2022.

Predictably, Gausman's swinging strike rate is well below normal. His four-seam velocity is down .5 mph while his signature splitter is down .8 mph. These two pitches work in concert. Gausman thrown one of the best splitters in the league because it plays so well off his four-seamer. The inefficiency of his heater carries over to the splitter.

Gausman insists that his shoulder is fine, but the numbers suggest otherwise. Gausman is in the third year of a five-year contract and the Blue Jays are in a window where they want to win before keeping their core intact will be a financial burden. This supports Gausman's healthy contention since the Toronto Blue Jays don't want to lose their ace for the second half of his contract.

Furthermore, Gausman has thrown 101 and 100 pitches over his past two outings. It just doesn't make sense he'd be doing that with a lingering shoulder issue.

On Sunday, the decision to start or sit is based on format and needs. The Blue Jays are hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. In head-to-head leagues, it's about desperation. If you're behind, you probably need to roll the dice. If you're ahead, reserving Gausman to protect the lead is the safe call. In other formats, my personal lean is starting my ace.

Some want to see a struggling pitcher post a solid game before trusting him. It can be argued Gausman pitched well last time with 6 2/3 innings while allowing no earned runs to the Kansas City Royals, but he only fanned two, along with yielding three unearned tallies. However, facing the Dodgers is a tall task. In daily formats, keeping Gausman on the bench is viable, then perhaps try to vulture a save from an available closer.

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.