Canoeing With The Cree

As the playoffs continue, the final Monday doubleheader of the NBA season is tonight. It's 2-1 in both series that play tonight, with the leading team in both games favored to go up 3-1.

Let's identify some angles of interest for players and/or teams to outproduce expectation:

Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers over 206.5 total points (-115). The Celtics held the Cavaliers to 93 points in Game 3, and one team or the other has scored between 93 and 95 points in all three playoffs games. But in Game 3, the Celtics also scored only 106 points, the lowest point total for a winner in this series. If we include the three regular-season matchups as well, Game 3 was the only of the six where the combined point total wasn't over 206.5 points. After averaging a combined 221.7 PPG in three regular season matchups, these teams averaged 214.5 combined points in Games 1 and 2 before the Game 3 clunker.

I expect a scoring bounce-back Monday, with the Cavaliers not named Donovan Mitchell scoring better and the Celtics producing a more typical scoring performance as well. Per BPI, the projected scoring total for Game 4 is 209 points.

Donovan Mitchell over 29.5 points (-125). Mitchell is the one scoring constant on both teams. The other Cavaliers are inconsistent, and the Celtics tend to distribute their scoring among several star caliber players so the leader alternates from game-to-game.

But Mitchell is always there. In five games against the Celtics this season, three in the playoffs and two in the regular season, Mitchell has scored between 29 and 33 points in all five games with an average of exactly 31.0 PPG. The Cavaliers rely on his scoring as their only chance to remain competitive, and he has shown the ability to produce at that level whether the game is close or a blowout.

Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks under 215.5 total points (-110). Two of the three games in this series have been well under 215.5 total points scored, with the one exception the 229 combined in Game 2. That game has been an outlier for these two teams not just for this series, but for the entire playoffs. The Mavericks have combined with their opponents to score more than 215.5 points only three times in nine playoffs games while the Thunder and their opponents have done it only twice in seven games (with Game 2 counted in the tally for both teams).

Unders are always tricky in competitive games because overtime is a possibility, but these teams both typically play lower-scoring playoffs games and that's the most likely outcome in Game 4 as well. The projected BPI point total is 213.2 points.

P.J. Washington over 14.5 points (-135). Washington has me convinced. After being more of a role player scorer for the first seven games of the playoffs, Washington has exploded to average 28.0 points over the past two games against the Thunder.

Part of that has been hot shooting, as he's knocked down 12 of 23 from behind the arc in those games, but more has been about a role shift. Luka Doncic has seemingly struggled physically, and isn't able to generate his own points to his typical levels against the defense the Thunder are playing. Similar story with Kyrie Irving, regarding the Thunder defense. But in taking away Luka and Kyrie, the Thunder have to overplay them to the point it creates wide open looks for Washington and the other Mavericks. The Thunder also don't have a lot of size in their lineup, allowing Washington to face wings as opposed to a more traditional power forward. The Thunder could decide to switch up their defense to limit Washington, but to do so would free up much greater scorers in Luka and Kyrie to potentially do even more damage.

So, I'm looking for Washington, playing at home again, to get at least enough open looks to score in the mid-teens or more with a reasonable shot for his third straight 20-point effort.

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET 

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers 7:00 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland

Records (Against the Spread) Celtics: 64-18 (43-35-4) Cavaliers: 48-34 (37-44-1)

Line: Celtics (-9.5) Total: 207.5 Money Line: Celtics (-390), Cavaliers (+310) BPI Projection: Celtics by 1.1, straight up 54%, 209.0 total points.

Injury Report: Celtics: Luke Kornet, (GTD - Calf); Kristaps Porzingis, (OUT - Calf) Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell, (GTD - Calf); Jarrett Allen, (GTD - Ribs); Craig Porter, (OUT - Ankle); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks East Semifinals - Game 4 9:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas

Records (Against the Spread) Thunder: 57-25 (46-35-1) Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)

Line: Mavericks (-1.5) Total: 214.5 Money Line: Thunder (-105), Mavericks (-115) BPI Projection: Mavericks by 2.7, straight up 59%, 213.2 total points.

Injury Report: Thunder: Olivier Sarr, (OUT - Achilles) Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD - Knee); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (OUT - Ankle); Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Shoulder); Greg Brown III, (OUT - Personal)